Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 3.553109 4.167132 4.847057 5.654595 6.586323 7.626349 8.873998
2025-10-05 2.739231 3.601916 4.660660 6.049755 7.817859 9.986232 12.839439
2025-10-12 2.141461 3.099912 4.381424 6.206401 8.722214 12.049443 16.760614
2025-10-19 1.748987 2.749150 4.187599 6.382495 9.616218 14.167523 21.009946
2025-10-26 1.430665 2.420549 3.939443 6.402279 10.247255 15.957911 24.996197
2025-11-02 1.148607 2.080766 3.599157 6.202042 10.485239 17.162631 28.228650
2025-11-09 0.914216 1.766701 3.235565 5.887775 10.470159 17.939601 30.850141
2025-11-16 0.763991 1.566834 3.023152 5.779829 10.756960 19.200728 34.353476
2025-11-23 0.650739 1.411480 2.859586 5.723997 11.110676 20.591742 38.200999
2025-11-30 0.594669 1.356285 2.869766 5.982615 12.050609 23.081161 44.192655
2025-12-07 0.521627 1.251222 2.764760 6.000875 12.537292 24.802777 48.978807
2025-12-14 0.456558 1.150245 2.650519 5.980544 12.939758 26.400545 53.685314
2025-12-21 0.399666 1.058654 2.545515 5.972954 13.385413 28.164574 58.969076
2025-12-28 0.389327 1.076273 2.682923 6.506714 15.018014 32.424617 69.559681
2026-01-04 0.356939 1.032683 2.674554 6.716269 15.989283 35.464897 78.035594
2026-01-11 0.327867 0.991571 2.664945 6.920627 16.972973 38.629924 87.078810
2026-01-18 0.292685 0.926349 2.585482 6.947065 17.557653 41.011790 94.717835
2026-01-25 0.250834 0.832833 2.418252 6.732655 17.554709 42.120231 99.738945
2026-02-01 0.209991 0.732504 2.214898 6.393878 17.207422 42.422436 103.015253
2026-02-08 0.183621 0.670375 2.103845 6.277479 17.387372 43.932641 109.134796
2026-02-15 0.162670 0.620642 2.018713 6.217236 17.699636 45.778492 116.195330
2026-02-22 0.154681 0.612666 2.053944 6.496583 18.925462 49.914148 128.987267
2026-03-01 0.139924 0.577501 2.001193 6.516310 19.463491 52.430358 138.142740